Israelis vote on Tuesday to elect a new parliament, and a week later Americans will elect a new Congress, two contests that could have consequences well beyond their borders.1
The Israeli election will choose 120 members of the 26th Knesset, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing his rival, the former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. Al Jazeera's summary said Israelis had begun voting and described Netanyahu as fighting for political survival amid divisions over the wars in Gaza and Iran and growing isolation, while the BBC described the Israeli vote as taking place on Tuesday.1,4
The two contests are about 6,000 miles apart, yet they are linked by voters. The lobby group Republicans Overseas Israel estimates that about half a million Israelis with American passports can vote in both polls.1
Marc Zell, the group's chairman, said these electors could influence tight races in the US, such as the Michigan Senate contest, where he estimated 10,000 absentee ballots would be cast from Israel. "They can really make a difference," he told the BBC.1
The policy link is most acute over the US-Israeli war on Iran. A massive aerial attack that began in February destroyed many military targets and killed much of Iran's leadership, but it did not overthrow the regime. Iran hit back hard across the Gulf and seized control of the Strait of Hormuz and the energy that flowed through it.1
Netanyahu has used the campaign to talk up the possibility of launching a fresh attack on Iran. He has made new claims about Iran's nuclear threat without providing evidence, and has again insisted that the Islamic regime must be overthrown. The BBC's analysis says his aim is to shore up his reputation as a security leader, which suffered after the deadly 7 October Hamas-led attacks on Israel. The reports do not include a response from Netanyahu's office to these claims.1
US President Donald Trump has endorsed Netanyahu's re-election campaign, saying both men should "soon finish the job" in Iran. Trump has also been campaigning for Republican congressional candidates, including in Michigan on Sunday, where the Senate race is tight. At a rally in Port Huron, he backed the Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers, a former US representative.1
The BBC noted contradictory reports that Trump intervened to restrain Netanyahu from attacking Iran before polling day. According to those reports, Trump feared a fresh spike in energy prices would remind US voters of the war. The reports supplied do not establish which account is accurate.1
Israeli media have speculated that Netanyahu could try to secure his survival by attacking Iran as caretaker prime minister after the election. In that scenario, he would argue for a government of national unity involving him, rather than a coalition between opposition parties. If he lost power, he would face an official inquiry into his actions before the October 7 attacks, as well as renewed legal proceedings involving allegations of corruption.1
Eisenkot has already ruled out joining any unity government. Like all mainstream Israeli politicians, he sees Iran as an existential threat to Israel and supports military action against the Islamic regime. He has, however, explicitly warned against escalating the war for political purposes.1
Billionaire hedge fund investor Bill Ackman has called for Israel's next government to exclude the far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, days before voters head to the polls. Ackman argued that both have damaged the country's international reputation, saying, "Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich have caused Israel enormous reputational damage with their statements…"3
The BBC's analysis suggests that Trump may be more willing to attack Iran after the midterms if he is unconstrained electorally and hoping to extract himself from the war with one more push. That remains speculation, and the reports do not say what Trump intends to do.1
The reports supplied do not include results from either election. They also do not say whether any renewed attack on Iran will happen before or after the votes.1,4
