Democrat James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton are running neck-and-neck for the U.S. Senate in Texas days before the Nov. 3 election.1,7
The outcome could help decide control of the U.S. Senate on a tightly contested national map, and both parties say the result will shape politics well beyond Tuesday. No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since Talarico was in kindergarten, and the New York Post noted that no Democrat has been elected to the Senate from Texas since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988.1,5
It is the most expensive Senate race in the country. National Republican groups funded almost entirely by Elon Musk have poured north of $272 million into the race, and the campaigns and outside groups have spent a combined $408 million on advertising since the primaries, according to the Texas Tribune account. Talarico has raised more money than any Senate candidate in the country, aided by outside spending that previous statewide Democrats lacked, and has tied what he calls a broken economy to billionaire and corporate political influence, calling Paxton its "embodiment." Paxton has warned the GOP base that his loss would surrender Texas and its conservative identity to the radical left.1
Despite the spending and late campaigning by President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance, who headlined six events in Texas since Labor Day, Talarico has kept a slim polling lead that the Tribune called an unheard-of position this late for a statewide Democrat in Texas. CBS News also reported a new poll showing Talarico leading Paxton. Paxton is the only battleground Republican Senate nominee less popular than Trump in his own state, according to the Cook Political Report, while Talarico's favorability dipped after heavy attacks but his polling average held.1,4,8
More than 6.8 million voters cast ballots through the first 11 days of the 12-day early voting period, exceeding the total at the same point in 2022 by over 40%, according to totals from the Texas Secretary of State's Office. Republicans said privately and publicly that they were concerned about turnout. "Texas is excruciatingly close," Sen. Ted Cruz said on his podcast Friday. "We could lose every single statewide race in Texas. That's how close these numbers are." Cruz also warned that Republicans could lose as many as eight Senate seats nationally and be swept in Texas if Nov. 3 goes badly for the party. "You need to be scared, and you need to be concerned — the early vote is not in our favor," Texas Comptroller Don Huffines, who is on the ballot for a full term, said Thursday.1,7
Paxton and his allies have spent an estimated $58 million on advertising about transgender policy involving minors. In 2021, during a hearing on a bill limiting students to school sports teams that match their sex assigned at birth, Talarico argued that "there are six really common biological sexes." He recanted last month on Fox News. The ads have kept those remarks in wide circulation, along with mail including what MSNBC described as a fake transgender "resource guide" mailed to school-age children, which both campaigns denied sending. Republicans have spent an estimated $183 million nationally on similar advertising.3
The advertising has resonated with some wavering Republicans in the Fort Worth suburbs interviewed in focus groups. "I honestly don't care who sent it. I just don't want the info in my house," said Ashley, a Republican mother of four, referring to the mailer. She said she would never consider voting for Talarico, who went to seminary and talks openly about his faith. "Just because you went to seminary doesn't mean you have Christian values," she said. "If you're supporting LGBTQ in any form or fashion in that regard, that's not Christian." Susan, who almost always votes Republican and voted in the primary for Sen. John Cornyn, whom Paxton beat. "I would probably just not vote or vote libertarian as a protest," she said. "I just cannot bring myself to vote for Paxton, and yet I know Talarico is in favor of this." Seven of eight right-leaning voters in that group said the candidates' positions on transgender policy for children would factor into their votes.3
The issue also hits a nerve with conservative Hispanic voters in Harris County who voted for Trump in 2024 and said they were unhappy with the economy and with an immigration crackdown they consider overkill. "There's certain things that are just a no-go for me, and it's non-negotiable," said Angelika, a mother of six. Cultural issues keep her "more towards the Republican side, because I believe Jesus should be in school," Angelika explained. On transgender rights, she added, "I don't want anyone teaching my kids about that kind of stuff." "You can't have a kid, you know, deciding if you're going to be a boy or girl at the age of seven, eight, or nine," said Guillermo, who still leans toward Talarico. "If you are going to say something, stand by it," Caroline said. "On the other hand, Ken Paxton too, with all the scandals and the corruption, it's kind of picking the lesser of two evils for me." Adrian, a married homeowner from northern Houston, said he was open to Talarico. "Talk more about religion, more about transgender," he said. "If he focuses more on that and the cost of living, I would consider him." One independent from Fort Bend County who generally votes Democratic said, "I feel like it's the Republicans that are constantly talking about this stuff, and I'm like, 'Okay, but that doesn't make my brisket cheaper.'"3
The focus-group reporting suggested the ads could hold wavering Republicans from crossing over and instead produce an undervote, with conservatives turning out but leaving the Senate race blank or voting Libertarian as a protest. That may not be enough for Paxton if Talarico continues to win independents by double digits, as recent polls have shown, and if Democratic turnout remains high. Talarico's path depends on presidential-level Democratic turnout, strong margins with independents and Latino voters, and winning over some Republicans, something no Democrat has done statewide this century. Paxton's path depends on turning out Republicans and persuading those uneasy with him that Talarico would be worse.1,3
In Harris County, the state's largest county and home to Houston, Paxton's office as attorney general filed a lawsuit against county election officials over a get-out-the-vote advertising campaign that directed ads using racial or ethnic targeting terms toward Black, Latino and Asian audiences. The lawsuit said, "By specifically directing voting advertisements to these and many other racial or ethnic 'detailed targeting' terms, it is readily apparent that Harris County is attempting to increase the likelihood that only certain racial and ethnic groups—but not all—will vote," adding, "In any event, there can be no legitimate reason for Harris County to intentionally target voter advertisements toward this peculiar assortment of African American, Asian, and Latino ethnicities, cultural interests, and countries, but not toward any European ethnicities." Harris County has stopped running the ads, and Paxton recused himself from the lawsuit. The county had recorded more than 950,000 early votes with one day of early voting left, above the previous nonpresidential record of 855,711 in 2018. Texas Democratic Congressman Christian D. Menefee wrote online, "Ken Paxton filed this lawsuit in the final days of voting because he wants to stop Houstonians from going to the polls. He's whining about ads that do nothing more than tell neighbors when to vote and where to get information about voting." Menefee continued, "Remember this: Someone with as much power as the Texas Attorney General would only take desperate action like this lawsuit because he is scared," and urged eligible Harris County voters to cast ballots.6
Federal Election Commission records show Nouman Ali Khan, founder of the Bayyinah Institute, gave the Democrat three $1,000 contributions, the most recent arriving Oct. 19, the day early voting opened and one day after Talarico worked the room courting Muslim voters at a halal barbecue spot in the Dallas suburb of Irving. Khan did not attend that event, a Talarico campaign official said. Khan was accused in 2017 by multiple women of using his celebrity to draw them into relationships, in some cases quickie religious marriages they said were a cover for sex, and then pressuring them to keep their mouths shut. A panel of four Muslim scholars found that when women complained, Khan "apologizes and attempts to buy their silence or threatens them," according to BuzzFeed News reporting in December 2017, and a second panel of six clerics concluded his behavior was "unbecoming of any believer, much less someone who teaches about the Holy Qur'an." Khan denied wrongdoing and his lawyer called the claims "unfounded." In a lecture titled "Hitting Women – That's Messed Up," Khan said, "He loses his mind, and what does he do? He hits her," adding, "You snap, now he hit, or he pushed her, something he did and he feels bad. 'How could I have done that?' Allah says, 'I will give you license in that crazy case. I'll let you get away with that one.'" Khan said the exception applied only to "repeated" and "perpetual infidelity from a wife" and even then should be limited to a "tap, or whatever." Spokesman JT Ennis said, "Our campaign did not solicit a contribution from this individual and condemns violent rhetoric in all its forms," adding, "This individual is one of more than 1.6 million contributors and does not speak for our campaign." Khan did not respond to a request for comment.5
Democrats see the conditions as unusually favorable: a midterm under a Republican president, with Trump's approval weighed down by an unpopular war and high gas prices, an opponent whose own party spent nearly $100 million calling him unfit for office, and backlash in Texas over issues including data center development. A loss now could make Texas harder to sell for future national investment, while a win could reshape competition for the state as early as the 2028 presidential race, especially with Texas expected to gain congressional seats and Electoral College votes after the 2030 Census. For Texas Republicans, a loss would sharpen tensions between the wing that backed Paxton and the old guard that warned he was a liability. "This is one of the most difficult political challenges in the world," said Manny Garcia, a former executive director of the Texas Democratic Party. "The whole world changes when you break through and win a statewide race in Texas."1
What happens next is the vote itself on Nov. 3. Harris County has one day of early voting left in its record run, statewide early voting is ending.1,6,7
