Israeli voters go to the polls on Tuesday in the first election since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack and Israel's war in Gaza, a vote that will test whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can hold on to power against a challenge from former military chief Gadi Eisenkot.1,2,5
Many describe the election as the most consequential in years. Netanyahu has campaigned on a promise to keep Israel safe, and he faces criticism over intelligence failures before the Oct. 7 attacks. Divisions over the war, and over military service requirements for ultra-Orthodox young men, are also central to the race.1,2
Eisenkot leads the newly formed Yashar Party, which has surged in recent polls. He has criticized Netanyahu's handling of the Oct. 7 failures and supports requiring broader military service. Yashar is described as centrist, and Eisenkot as the main opposition challenger to Netanyahu's right-wing Likud party. Another major challenger, B'Yachad, is an alliance led by former prime minister Naftali Bennett that brings together centrist and right-leaning voters opposed to Netanyahu's continued leadership.2,5
A Walla poll published Oct. 20 projected Yashar winning 23 seats, compared with 19 for Likud and 14 for Bennett's B'Yachad. Netanyahu's coalition bloc was projected at 48 seats, compared with 54 for opposition parties. The coverage of the race has differed in its framing. NBC News headlined its story "New Polls Show Netanyahu in Tight Race Against Main Rival," while CBS News headlined its story "Netanyahu trails in polls ahead of first Israeli election since start of Gaza war."2,3,4
Israelis do not directly elect their prime minister. They vote for parties, which receive seats in the 120-member Knesset, and the leader who can assemble enough parliamentary support to form a government becomes prime minister. A majority generally requires 61 seats. Parties must win at least 3.25% of the vote to enter the Knesset. The outcome of the vote is not yet known.2
President Donald Trump has endorsed Netanyahu. In his endorsement last week, Trump wrote: "Bibi Netanyahu has been a Great Warrior Prime Minister, and an even greater Partner for Peace in combatting the Islamic Republic of Iran." He added: "If Israel has the wrong Leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi, America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so," concluding: "BIBI NETANYAHU WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!"2
Isaac Herzog reaffirmed the independence of Israel's election amid Trump's push for Netanyahu. "I don't think the president of the United States or anybody else can intervene in my discretion," Herzog told MS NOW. Netanyahu has also warned Iran against an attack on Election Day, saying "Don't test us."6,8
Arab Israeli citizens could also be crucial to the outcome and to Netanyahu's future. Turnout among Arab Israelis has traditionally been lower than among the rest of the population. This time, some feel it is their duty more than ever to cast a ballot, given the policies and wars undertaken by Netanyahu.7
Netanyahu has served as prime minister from 1996 to 1999, from 2009 to 2021, and again since 2022, making him Israel's longest-serving prime minister. Before Oct. 7, Israel had already gone through five elections in a few years as coalition governments repeatedly fell apart, and mass protests had been held over his proposed judicial reforms. After the attacks, a wartime coalition government was formed. Netanyahu's supporters point to his experience confronting Iran and its regional proxies, and to his relationship with Trump. Critics argue that the Oct. 7 failures demand accountability and a change in leadership.2
Military service for ultra-Orthodox, or Haredi, men is one of the most contentious issues. When Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion agreed at the founding of Israel to exempt approximately 400 yeshiva students from military service, the arrangement was intended to help rebuild Jewish religious scholarship after the Holocaust. The exemption gradually expanded. Netanyahu's coalition has included Haredi parties that oppose drafting yeshiva students. Many ultra-Orthodox leaders fear service could pull students away from religious studies. Support for requiring Haredi Israelis to serve has grown significantly among the broader public after three years of war.2
In the north, residents of communities near the Lebanese border are weighing their votes. Asaf Lengleben, head of the Upper Galilee Regional Council, plans to vote for Yashar. "Three years of fear has changed the people and we need to give them a lot of hope," Lengleben said. Thousands of residents fled their homes after Hezbollah began launching attacks following Oct. 7, 2023, and many have yet to return. Lengleben said fewer than 1,000 families with children have returned to communities in his region since the war began. "People didn't want to come back. They're still afraid of Hezbollah," he said. Tourism is collapsing, and in Kiryat Shmona, shuttered storefronts have complicated efforts to restore normal life. "It's about money. The ability of the government to assist us is about money," Lengleben said. The Netanyahu government has approved reconstruction measures, including funding to transform Tel-Hai Academic College into the University of Kiryat Shmona.5
Daniella Porat-Penso, 59, of Kibbutz Yiftah, credits the military with dramatically improving security along the northern border. "We had to use a significant amount of strength, of army, of funds, of manpower to push them back, and we're not threatened now," she said. "I feel safe." She is weighing a vote for either Yashar or Yair Golan's left-wing Democrats. "I think the north will benefit from a change in government," she said.5
Eylon Bader, 37, spent roughly a year fighting in Gaza and considers Netanyahu one of the most consequential Jewish leaders of modern times. He plans to support former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman. Retired IDF Col. Kobi Marom holds the prime minister personally accountable for the failures surrounding the Oct. 7 attack. Bader's biggest concern is the military service exemption enjoyed by many ultra-Orthodox men. "It's not Judaism. It's terrible for society," he said. Asked about the choice before voters, Bader said: "It's not about right or left. It's not about a Palestinian state or not. It's about yes Netanyahu or no Netanyahu."5
