WASHINGTON — Vice President JD Vance said Wednesday that Republicans lost Tuesday's midterm elections because of the war in Iran, writing in a lengthy statement on X that anger among voters who backed President Donald Trump in 2024 drove the defeats.2,6,8
Vance's comments, his first public remarks since the elections in which Democrats took control of both chambers of Congress, placed responsibility for the losses on the conflict rather than on turnout. He said many people who voted for the Trump-Vance ticket in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026, and he wrote, "The president himself said so last night."2,4,8
Vance said he had discussed voter composition with data analysts in the weeks before the midterms, referring to whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. "One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was 'composition'—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win," he wrote. "And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic."2
"There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up," Vance wrote. He said he asked the smartest data guy he knows whether they were going to shock the world, and the analyst replied, "'No,' he told me. 'We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us.'" Vance said that assessment looks prophetic and cited Florida, where he said the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. He said a pollster told him Tuesday that Republicans would lose the generic ballot by 13 points because Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats.2,8
According to Vance, that pollster asked voters who had left the party what would bring them back, and nearly all responses fell into four categories. "He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team," Vance wrote. "The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were: 1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel." He added, "Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats."2,8
Vance said one pollster told him Republican economic messaging "wasn't sharp enough down the stretch," which he said he was sure was true, but he added, "But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone." He wrote, "The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night." He continued, "If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there."2,4,8
Trump has also linked the results in part to the war while defending the decision to wage it. Axios reported that Trump told The Wall Street Journal, "Iran was a piece of it," without saying he regretted the war. In a Fox News interview Tuesday, Trump suggested the war was partially to blame for Republican losses but said "people understand the importance of what I've done," according to CBS News. At a White House event Wednesday afternoon, Trump said he agreed with Vance that the war "drove the gasoline up a little bit, short term." He added, "But at the same time, if I had to do it again, I'd have to do it again because long term, it's the only answer," and, "You have no choice. You have to do it. You can't let Iran have a nuclear weapon."6,8
"In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty," he wrote. He said, "I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance," but added, "But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you." Axios noted that cost of living and government corruption were the two top issues in this year's election, per exit polls from AP, and that gas prices and grocery costs have skyrocketed amid the Iran war and the president's tariff policies.2,6,7
Trump launched the war in Iran in late February and had pledged at the time that it would last only four to five weeks, according to CBS News. It has stretched into its eighth month, leading to a spike in gas prices. The United States launched limited defensive strikes on Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. Twenty-three U.S. service members have been killed during the conflict and 865 have been wounded, according to the Defense Department.8
Democrats are expected to hold at least 54 seats in the Senate after winning 10 of 11 battleground states, according to CBS News estimates. The Senate races in Alaska and Mississippi are unresolved and rated as toss-ups. CBS News estimated Democrats will control between 251 and 268 seats in the House when all votes are counted.8
Vance highlighted a call by Fox News host Rachel Campos-Duffy for a "diplomatic resolution" to the conflict, describing her recommendation as "sound." He spent much of the spring leading U.S. negotiators in talks aimed at ending the conflict and reached an agreement with Iran to halt the fighting that soon fell apart. Axios reported that Trump's son Donald Trump Jr. was quick to apparently endorse Vance's message, while the White House and the vice president's office did not immediately respond to requests for comments Wednesday morning.6,8
"I remain hopeful about our country," Vance wrote. "To the people who are pissed off and want to say, 'I told you so': you're right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let's take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country."2,7,8
