Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton in the race for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas on Tuesday, according to projections, becoming the first Democrat to win such a race in the state since 1988.1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
The outcome ends three decades in which Republicans held the seat, in a state President Donald Trump won three times, and it came as part of a night of Democratic victories that included a projected win in the Texas governor's race and projections that Democrats would take control of Congress. The Associated Press called the Senate race at 11:03 p.m., the Washington Examiner reported, with Talarico at 59.2% and Paxton at 39.2% with 67% of votes counted, so a final margin was not yet known.1,4,5,7
The contest was among the most expensive in American history. The Washington Examiner put total ad spending and reservations at more than $575 million and described it as the most expensive non-presidential election in American history, while the BBC reported more than half a billion dollars spent and described it as the most expensive U.S. Senate race in history. The reports differed on spending linked to Elon Musk: NBC News described a $168 million ad assault by the world's wealthiest man, while the BBC reported that Musk put $158 million into a super political action committee supporting Paxton.1,5,7
Talarico, a state lawmaker and former schoolteacher who also spent time in a seminary, was a little-known figure until last year and built his campaign around the rising cost of living and what he described as a divide of top versus bottom rather than left versus right. He told supporters that the top 1% of wealthy Americans wanted the rest of the country to fight with one another instead of keep a check on those in power. He drew 1,500 people to a launch rally in Round Rock in 2025, broke fundraising records with the help of small-dollar donors from across the country, and defeated Dallas Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary.1,7
Paxton, who was backed by Trump in the Republican primary over Sen. John Cornyn, campaigned alongside Trump and sought to portray Talarico's views as too progressive for the state, including attacks on past comments in which Talarico supported transgender people. Trump visited Texas three times in October to hold rallies, hitting red areas along the way to boost turnout, as Paxton struggled in polling and fundraising and Trump tried to mount a rescue mission. Talarico held a steady polling lead through the general election, NBC News reported, typically by the margin of error.1,7
The Republican-controlled state House impeached Paxton in 2023 on corruption accusations, and the state Senate later acquitted him. The BBC also reported that he had been indicted by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on federal fraud charges that were later dismissed. Paxton's estranged wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, publicly revealed that she had sought a divorce on "biblical grounds" and cut an ad urging her party to support the ticket without ever mentioning Paxton.1,7
Cornyn said he would back the Republican ticket but did not specifically endorse Paxton, and he held a joint fundraiser with former President George W. Bush for Republican Senate candidates that did not include Paxton. Two members of the Bush family, Bush's daughter Barbara and his brother Neil, supported Talarico. After the race was called, Cornyn said, "The voters have spoken, and I want to extend my congratulations to James Talarico on his election to the U.S. Senate," adding, "I look forward to meeting him and offering my assistance with his transition as he prepares to serve Texans in the U.S. Senate."1,5
At a watch party in Austin, supporters reacted as televisions projected Talarico the winner, and Talarico later took the stage and said, "We just took back Texas." He said, "We just proved that all the money in the world is no match for the people of Texas," referring to Paxton's campaign, which was backed by Musk. Comparing his chances to the biblical story of David and Goliath, he said, "This win, this win is for every Texan who's ever wondered if anyone is listening," adding, "I hear you, we hear you. And tonight the world hears you."1,7
He made a strategic decision not to campaign with surrogates from outside the state, so former President Barack Obama, who rallied in states such as Michigan, did not campaign for him in Texas. Podcaster Joe Rogan, who supported Trump in 2024, hosted Talarico and urged him to run for president, and invitations from Stephen Colbert and Jimmy Kimmel drew the White House's ire under a rarely enforced equal time rule that blocked television appearances but generated millions of views and fundraising.1
Early voting data pointed to record turnout in many counties, with large numbers of Hispanic voters, including young people and people who had not voted in 2022 or 2024, and a shift among Latino voters back toward Democrats after many supported Trump in Texas in 2024. Surveys taken since late summer indicated that a majority of Hispanic voters in Texas, who make up a third of the state's population, disapproved of Trump, and that Hispanic voters favored Democrats by a significant margin. Voters have been frustrated with high consumer costs, including the price of petrol, and largely blame Trump's tariff policies and the Iran war. Many Texas Hispanics who spoke to the BBC before the election pointed to Trump's immigration crackdown as the reasoning behind their change of heart, pointing to aggressive measures that led to citizens being detained and non-violent offenders being rounded up indiscriminately, despite border crossings plummeting under Trump.1,7
Quardricos Driskell, a political science professor at George Washington University, told the BBC that Paxton was an "objectively terrible candidate" and called the Texas results, including the projected defeat of three-term Republican Gov. Greg Abbott by Democrat Gina Hinojosa, "absolutely historic." He said, "This wasn't just a tsunami, not just a referendum, but this was a bloodbath," adding, "A clear distinction that the country wants to go in a different direction." CBS News also projected that Hinojosa defeated Abbott, the first Democratic win for Texas governor since the 1990s.4,7
Talarico's win differs from the last close Democratic effort statewide, when Beto O'Rourke narrowly lost to Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018. Talarico framed the closing days of the campaign as a contest against Musk, accusing him of trying to buy his own personal senator, while Musk intensified criticism of Talarico on X.1
